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It is not unusual to see the ball fall into a black slot on a roulette wheel four times in a row. But for it to fall five or six times in a row into the same color is very unusual. Therefore you can win money by waiting for a run of five of the same color and then betting against that color. If the roulette wheel in question is a fair wheel, which of the following observations or facts, if it were true, would best reveal a fallacy in the logic?
The Best Option is D
In critical reasoning questions many of the answer choices can be factually correct or reasonable sounding, and so eliminating without understanding the question is not possible. Your job is to find the best answer to the specific
question, so read carefully. A fallacy in the logic is an error in the thinking behind the proposal. The person concludes that if you wait for a run of five of the same color and then bet against the color, you WILL win. Now the logic behind that
suggests that the probability of getting that same color again is low. But just as tossing a fair coin always gives an even chance of a head or tail no matter what has gone before, the probability of getting a color is always the same no matter
what has gone before.
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